Marseille 2007
| Abstract #276 - Where have all the sex workers gone: Estimating vulnerable population sizes and the problem of numbers | ||||
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Session: 30.5: Sex and sexuality (Parallel) on Tuesday @ 11.00-12.30 in CP Chaired by Peter Weatherburn, Linda Pride Authors: Presenting Author: Dr Heather Worth - University of New South Wales, Australia |
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| Additional Authors: Dr Patrick Rawstorne, | ||||
| Aim: This paper discusses the problem of vulnerable population size estimation using the example of Sri Lankan sex workers | ||||
| Method / Issue: Many recent reputable sources cite the number of sex workers in Sri Lanka as around 30,000 (Sri Lankan Government 2006; UNDP, 2005; World Bank 2005). However, in the preparation period of the first national behavioural surveillance survey (BSS) in Sri Lanka, the survey team came across a puzzling phenomenon: large numbers of sex workers (a group at heightened risk for HIV in Sri Lanka and a population included in the survey) seemed to have disappeared. When the researchers carried out a one month pre-surveillance mapping exercise of the female sex worker population they were only able to find about 1500 sex workers. Where had all the sex workers gone? | ||||
| Results / Comments: While there are limitations in mapping which will be discussed, but taking into account possible underestimations of the true population size, this does not account for the large discrepancy between the number of sex workers that were mapped in the five cities and the 30,000 estimated for the country. This discrepancy warrants attention. | ||||
| Discussion: This paper will discuss the main reason for such discrepancy: number inflation. Number inflation has bugged HIV surveillance from the beginning of the epidemic and it has many and often good reasons. But there are also downsies to number inflation and these will be discussed. | ||||
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